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Andrei Chirileasa
Editor-in-Chief

Andrei studied finance at the Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies and started his journalism career in 2004 with Ziarul Financiar, the leading financial newspaper in Romania, where he worked for ten years, the last six of which as editor of the capital markets section. He joined the Romania-Insider.com team in 2014 as editor and became Editor-in-Chief in 2016. He currently oversees the daily content published on Romania-Insider.com and likes to stay up to date with everything relevant in business, politics, and life in Romania. Andrei lives with his family in the countryside in Northern Romania, where he built their own house. In his free time, he studies horticulture and tends to his family’s garden. He enjoys foraging in the woods and long walks on the hills and valleys around his village. Email him for story ideas and interviews at [email protected] 

 

Erste Group expects Romania to halve budget deficit by 2022

Romania's public deficit will shrink from 8.6% of GDP this year to 5.5% of GDP in 2021 and 4.1% of GDP in 2022, under the latest forecast issued by Erste Group Research, quoted by Hotnews.ro.

After rising sharply from 35.2% at the end of last year to 43.8% at the end of 2020, the public debt to GDP ratio will slow down thanks to a combination of shrinking public deficits and robust rise of GDP Austrian group expects.

Thus, the public indebtedness will rise to 48% of GDP at the end of 2022 - just under the 50% threshold that triggers, under the national fiscal responsibility law, specific steps aimed at preventing further deterioration of the public finance.

Erste Group also forecasts significant real GDP growth of 3.9% and 3.7% in 2021 and 2022, after a rather optimistic 4.7% contraction expected for 2020.

It also predicts the local currency will not weaken in real terms. Specifically, the exchange rate should not go over RON 5 for EUR 1 before the latest months of 2022.

"Our forecast shows an average weakening of the leu of 2-3ppt vs. the euro per year in nominal terms," the report reads. Meanwhile, the headline inflation rate is expected to accelerate to 3.4% in 2021 from 2.8% this year, then ease at 2.7% in 2022.

(Photo: Diony Teixeira/ Dreamstime)

[email protected]

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Profile picture for user andreich
Andrei Chirileasa
Editor-in-Chief

Andrei studied finance at the Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies and started his journalism career in 2004 with Ziarul Financiar, the leading financial newspaper in Romania, where he worked for ten years, the last six of which as editor of the capital markets section. He joined the Romania-Insider.com team in 2014 as editor and became Editor-in-Chief in 2016. He currently oversees the daily content published on Romania-Insider.com and likes to stay up to date with everything relevant in business, politics, and life in Romania. Andrei lives with his family in the countryside in Northern Romania, where he built their own house. In his free time, he studies horticulture and tends to his family’s garden. He enjoys foraging in the woods and long walks on the hills and valleys around his village. Email him for story ideas and interviews at [email protected] 

 

Erste Group expects Romania to halve budget deficit by 2022

Romania's public deficit will shrink from 8.6% of GDP this year to 5.5% of GDP in 2021 and 4.1% of GDP in 2022, under the latest forecast issued by Erste Group Research, quoted by Hotnews.ro.

After rising sharply from 35.2% at the end of last year to 43.8% at the end of 2020, the public debt to GDP ratio will slow down thanks to a combination of shrinking public deficits and robust rise of GDP Austrian group expects.

Thus, the public indebtedness will rise to 48% of GDP at the end of 2022 - just under the 50% threshold that triggers, under the national fiscal responsibility law, specific steps aimed at preventing further deterioration of the public finance.

Erste Group also forecasts significant real GDP growth of 3.9% and 3.7% in 2021 and 2022, after a rather optimistic 4.7% contraction expected for 2020.

It also predicts the local currency will not weaken in real terms. Specifically, the exchange rate should not go over RON 5 for EUR 1 before the latest months of 2022.

"Our forecast shows an average weakening of the leu of 2-3ppt vs. the euro per year in nominal terms," the report reads. Meanwhile, the headline inflation rate is expected to accelerate to 3.4% in 2021 from 2.8% this year, then ease at 2.7% in 2022.

(Photo: Diony Teixeira/ Dreamstime)

[email protected]

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