CFA Romania macroeconomic confidence index nears lowest levels ever
The macroeconomic confidence indicator compiled by CFA Romania Association by a poll conducted among its members on a monthly basis decreased in October by 1.4 points to 33.3 points on a scale of 0 to 100, where 50 points indicate balanced expectations. The indicator had plunged by 10.9 points in the month before.
The moderate deterioration in October was due to a decrease of 0.3 points in the anticipations component, which further deepened to 25.5 points.
The current conditions component edged down to 49 points, crossing the balanced expectations benchmark to the negative area after it dropped by 3.4 points compared to a month earlier.
The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon increased compared to the previous exercise, reaching an average value of 10.56%.
The local currency will depreciate towards an exchange rate of 5.06 RON to EUR within 12 months. Economic growth is expected at 1.6% in 2023.
The expectations for the ROBOR interbank rate for the 3-month tenant are back above 8%, at 8.39%, and the yield of the 10-year government bonds is seen as rising to 9.52% within 12 months, compared to 7.87% at the time the report was drafted.
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