CFA Romania’s macroeconomic confidence index, which takes value between 0 to 100 with 100 indicating full confidence in the local economy, plunged by 15.6 points compared to the previous month and by 12.3 points compared to the previous year, to 28.7 points in December 2018.
This is the weakest value for this index since 2012.
The sub-index showing analysts’ expectations on the economy’s evolution (as opposed to the evaluation of present situation) fell below average to only 19.9 points, nearing the decade’s lowest level posted in 2012.
In contrast, the current conditions are seen as the worst in the past four years but the sub-index stood at a decent value of 46.4 points in December, albeit in sharp decline by 9.1 points from November.
When it comes to the exchange rate expectations, the analysts see the euro traded at RON 4.72 within six months and RON 4.79 within 12 months (average expectations) from under RON 4.7 at the time the poll was conducted. The average expectations for the inflation rate over the next 12 months are at 3.9%.
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