Main Romanian lender sees 2.5% annual economic growth over 2020-2022
Romania's economy could see an average annual growth rate of 2.5% over the 2020-2022 period, according to Andrei Rădulescu, chief economist of Banca Transilvania.
The three-year period captures last year's plunge, followed by the recovery expected in 2021-2022.
The key driver would be the 6.7% advance of productive investments. Rădulescu also mentions the real financing costs remaining at a low level and implementing the European Union's programs for 2021-2027 as growth drivers, Ziarul Financiar reported.
"The increase in productive investments will have a driving impact for the other components of GDP, private consumption will have an average annual rate of 2.1% between 2020-2022, according to our scenario."
Andrei Rădulescu also estimates an increase in government consumption with an average annual rate of 4.5% in 2020-2022, supported by European programs.
Still, his forecast is significantly more optimistic than those of international financial institutions. For example, the World Bank estimates that the Romanian economy will grow by 3.5% this year, after a contraction of 5% in 2020, and in 2022 economic growth will accelerate to 4.1%. Such figures are consistent with average annual growth rates of under 1%.
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