The latest survey carried by CFA Society Romania among its members 9at the end of November) indicates a decrease in the macroeconomic confidence index by 0.6 points compared to the value recorded in October 2021, to 56.6 points.

In October, the index remained steady from September.

The decline of the confidence index in November is "mainly due to the risks posed by the evolution of the coronavirus-induced crisis, the Omicron variant, the budget deficit and its financing, the inflation rate and a possible Russia-Ukraine war," according to Economica.net - which is quoting CFA Society deputy president Adrian Codirlasu.

According to Codirlasu, "the forex market will close the year below 4.95 RON for one EUR, and we will have a stronger depreciation for the local currency starting next spring. The latest CFA survey set the average value of the exchange rate at 5.11 RON to EUR in 12 months."

Along with the evolution of the exchange rate, CFA Romania also projected a 3M ROBOR interest rate with a median expectation for a 12-month horizon set at 3.22%.

Interest on government securities is expected at 4.98% for 5-year securities and 5.60% for 10-year securities.

The average inflation in the next 12 months is seen by CFA Society members at 5.78%.

(Photo: Diony Teixeira/ Dreamstime)

andrei@romania-insider.com