Romania’s president Nicușor Dan will propose to parliamentary parties a “truce government “ either formed by technocrats or a mixed one, meaning “a political government with technocrats as ministers,” according to Antena3 CNN, citing sources familiar with the negotiations on July 10, as reported by Observatornews.ro. On the day before, president Dan repeated in Ankara that the option of snap elections is “unlikely” - a slight deviation from more radical phrasing in the past.

Nicușor Dan's ambitious target is for the new government to be sworn in by Parliament during the extraordinary session scheduled around July 20, according to B1tv.ro.  Although this session would be dedicated to the projects necessary for the implementation of the Resilience Facility (PNRR), the president would want the lawmakers to vote on the new government at that time.

President Dan is preparing another round of consultations with the pro-Western parties, to be held most likely on July 13, for the formation of a new ruling coalition. He urged the political parties to come up with majority scenarios and make them public, but the sources cited by Antena3 CNN imply that he could make another proposal of his own after rejecting the two candidates proposed by Social Democrats (PSD) and, respectively, the centrist bloc formed by the Liberals (PNL).

Elaborating on the hot topic in an interview given to Antena3 CNN after his return from Ankara, president Dan stated that the option of early parliamentary elections represents "an unlikely scenario at this moment." He argued that such a solution would not contribute to breaking the current political deadlock and would prolong the period of uncertainty because it would result in a parliamentary structure close to the current one.

The head of state said that the polls “to which he has access” indicate that a new election would most likely produce a parliamentary configuration close to the existing one. "It is something that does not get us out of the deadlock. That is, all the polls to which we have access tell us that we will have about the same parliamentary configuration and we will be in the same deadlock," said Nicușor Dan.

The latest public poll, however, indicates a slightly different outcome and a dynamic rather in favour of early elections. The Social Democrats (PSD), which have constantly blocked fiscal reformist attempts of prime minister Ilie Bolojan, would lose part of its electoral base to the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR, to become the largest parliamentary party), and the Liberal Party (PNL) would consolidate its position. Indeed, the centrist block PNL-USR-UDMR outweighs the Social Democrats in the pro-Western coalition that collapsed in April, but PSD would lose its position as the largest parliamentary party after the would-be elections, falling to third place not only after AUR, but also below PNL.

Overall, the latest Poll/Int Romania Barometer conducted by the Political Rating Agency (ARP) and published on July 8 indicated the formation of a centrist PNL-USR-UDMR coalition with a 37.8% electoral base, slightly larger than that of AUR (36.4%) and a weaker PSD (17.9%). Amid political turmoil, AUR is expected to strengthen its position until the term elections scheduled at the end of 228.

So indeed the parties supposed to form a post-electoral ruling coalition are the same (PNL, PSD, USR, and UDMR) – but with a slightly different balance of power. The far-right AUR would increase its position, but not to the point of forming the government alone – which is not obvious if the elections are held at term. 

Another important detail highlighted by the authors of the poll is that AUR and PSD share a common electoral base. However, PSD can not politically afford to join AUR to form a ruling coalition. At a later moment, under different international circumstances and after the AUR gets more involved in the political processes, this option would not be seen as “unlikely.”

iulian@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: Presidency.ro)