UniCredit analyst says Romania may go into technical recession by 2020

The global economic growth will slow down by 2020 and Romania is vulnerable due to the increase in budget spending and the drop in public investments, according to Dan Bucsa, chief economist for Central and Eastern Europe at UniCredit Bank in London. He thinks the biggest risk to Romania’s economic stability is the fiscal policy and that the country could enter a technical recession at the end of 2019 or in 2020, local Ziarul Financiar reported. “We believe that by 2020 the U.S. will go into recession and this will impact the global economy, including Romania. I hope we don’t have the illusion we had in 2008 that we are an island o stability and that the sun is shining when everyone falls around us,” Bucsa said. The hints that signal a possible recession in the near future are the fall in global exports and the capital outflows from emerging markets, which are higher than the ones in 2008-2009, according to the UniCredit economist. However, he points out that neither the International Monetary Fund (IMF) nor the market have had much success in predicting recessions. Romania’s economy accelerates in the third quarter Romania’s Prognosis Commission lowers real economic growth forecast for this year editor@romania-insider.com (photo source: Pexels.com)