Centrist Nicușor Dan ahead of far-right candidate in new survey on Romanian presidential elections

Bucharest mayor and independent presidential candidate Nicușor Dan is ahead of George Simion, the leader of far-right party AUR, in voting intentions, according to a poll presented on Thursday, May 15, by the independent public opinion polling institute IRSOP. This is the first time that the former takes the lead in the race for president.

According to the IRSOP poll, Nicușor Dan would be voted by 52% of Romanians, while George Simion would receive 48% of votes, with turnout estimated at over 60%. Another survey made public on Tuesday, May 13, showed that Dan and Simion were neck and neck, each with 48.2% of the vote in the lead-up to the second presidential vote on May 18.

Slightly over half (51%) of IRSOP respondents state that they would prefer Nicușor Dan as president and Ilie Bolojan as prime minister, while 42% would prefer George Simion as president and pro-Russian Călin Georgescu as prime minister.

The same survey shows that 59% of respondents think that Nicușor Dan will collaborate well with the legislative, while only 25% think the same of George Simion.

Slightly over half also think Dan will strengthen Romania’s relationship with NATO and the EU. Only a third say the same of the far-right candidate. Simion, on the other hand, will seek good relations with Russia, according to 61% of respondents.

IRSOP interviewed 951 people by phone between May 10–13, 2025 for the survey. The sample is representative of Romania’s population aged over 18. The sampling margin of error is 3.2% at a 95% confidence level. The poll is a public information service fully funded by IRSOP.

Most surveys, however, do not take into account numerous Romanians in the diaspora, who can decisively tip the scales. During the first round of the presidential elections, George Simion received twice as many votes as Nicușor Dan in the diaspora, according to data from the Permanent Electoral Authority. Voters outside Romania have 3 days to cast their ballots.

During an interview on Wednesday, May 14, Călin Georgescu referred to George Simion several times as “my younger protégé” and later as “partner.” He hinted that he wants to become prime minister if Simion wins the elections. The broadcast was watched live by over 40,000 people.

(Photo source: Nicusor Dan on Facebook)