Far-right George Simion leads Romanian presidential race, followed closely by ruling coalition's candidate

A Flashdata electoral poll carried out during April 10-12 and published by B1TV revealed that the far-right frontrunner candidate George Simion (Alliance for the Union of Romanians - AUR, 27% of the options expressed) leads at a thinner-than-anticipated margin. His main challenger may be the ruling coalition's candidate, Crin Antonescu (Social Democrats-Liberals-Hungarians, 26%), with independent candidate Nicusor Dan (Bucharest mayor, 20%) as a potential second-round player as well.

Quasi-independent reformist leader Elena Lasconi (still the leader of Save Romania Union - USR but not backed by her party anymore, 9%) and independent candidate Victor Ponta, once a leader of the Social Democrats (PSD) and former prime minister currently navigating his own far-right agenda (8%), are seen far from making it to the second round.

The Flashdata poll indicates that 82% of Romanians are determined to vote in the May 4/18 presidential elections. Only 9% confirmed they would not show up at the polling stations, while the other 9% are still undecided.

The research also indicates that 69% of those who have decided to vote know who they will vote for. A percentage of 9% are completely undecided, while another 21% are oriented but still have doubts.

The Flashdata poll was carried out after recent significant political developments with an impact on the candidates.

Thus, 92% of those surveyed confirmed that they had heard about Victor Ponta's statement regarding the decision to flood Romanian villages to save Belgrade (as a prime minister in 2014 – a claim not confirmed by many as plausible). Of those aware of Ponta's decision, 82% believe it was not a good decision.

Information about the conflict within the reformist party USR, which resulted in the withdrawal of support for Elena Lasconi in the presidential elections, reached the ears of 89% of those surveyed. Of those in the know, 60% disagree with the USR leadership's decision. Some 32% believe it was a good decision for USR to back independent candidate Nicusor Dan instead.

The opinion poll also measures Romanians' preferences for political parties. The PSD, under the leadership of Marcel Ciolacu, has lost its first position in terms of voter support. If elections were held on Sunday, the Flashdata poll shows, voters would vote for the AUR candidates in a proportion of 25.5%. The PSD would rank second with a score below 20% (19.5%).