CFA Romania macroeconomic confidence index keeps recovering in April

The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator compiled by CFA Romania rose by 11.6 points in April 2019, compared to the previous month, to 46.6 points. It lags only 2.9 points below the value in the same month of last year, compared to a significant 12.7 points annual deterioration posted one month earlier in March.

Analysts’ expectations for the future 12-month inflation increased to 4.15% from 4.03% one month earlier, while the expectations for the EUR/RON exchange rate slightly improved to 4.85 versus the euro over the next 12 months.

The macroeconomic confidence index plunged in January reflecting the massive deterioration in analysts’ sentiment and expectations toward the end of last year and particularly after the Government passed the emergency ordinance 114/2018 (“greed tax” ordinance). The amendments passed earlier this year slightly sweetened the original provisions of the OUG 114.

The impact of the latest political developments (the ruling party, Social Democratic Party losing the elections for the European Parliament and seeing its president in jail for corruption) is still not clear: the stock exchange increased on the news, but there is no guarantee that the risky macroeconomic policies would see any alteration.

While the current conditions sub-index (59.9 points) indicates significant confidence, the expectations are comparatively worse (39.9 points).

The Macroeconomic Reliability Indicator quantifies the expectations of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) analysts in Romania and candidates for levels II and III of the CFA exam. CFA Romania conducts its survey in the last week of the month, and the Indicator takes values ​between 0 (lack of trust) and 100 (full confidence in the Romanian economy).

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