Romania holds presidential elections amid intense isolationist campaign

Romania will repeat the presidential elections on May 4 with a second round on May 18, after the Constitutional Court stopped the process carried out in November-December last year amid intense fraudulent online activity that has amplified the rise of radical far-right candidates amid the broad disappointment of the Romanian electorate with the incumbent ruling coalition.

Quite unexpectedly, for a country with a pronounced pro-western position, there is a risk that isolationist candidates put Romania's geopolitical orientation at risk. The developments overlap with a complicated economic situation, aggravated by the high fiscal deficit that has to be addressed by a new package of fiscal corrective measures after the presidential elections.

Political turmoil generated by a president from other positions may complicate the fiscal consolidation, while a president from the ruling coalition is not a guarantee for deep reforms needed by macroeconomic stability.

The first round of the annulled 2024 presidential elections ended with the unexpected win of the isolationist candidate with fascist rhetoric, Calin Georgescu – a bureaucrat with a career in the government institutions with support from former nomenklatura members and reportedly also backed by factions within unreformed intelligence services.

Since the failed presidential ballot last year, the electoral authorities banned Georgescu from running for president again for his extremist rhetoric and initiated investigations into the largely illegal but tolerated far-right groups supporting him.

In Parliament, the ruling coalition formed by the Social Democrats (PSD) and Liberals (PNL) has managed to survive the December 1 parliamentary elections and form a fragile majority with the help of the Hungarian party UDMR, consolidating the electorate's frustration. The far-right parties hold a robust position of around 30% in Parliament, while the democratic opposition, mainly represented by the Save Romania Union (USR), is weakened by internal disagreements.

When it comes to the presidential ballot, the ruling coalition's position is much more fragile: its candidate Crin Antonescu, once president of the Liberal Party and founding member of the Liberals' coalition with the Social Democrats, is fighting for a place in the second round where it hopes to capitalise on Romanians' concerns with the rise of the far-right parties and defeat George Simion – seen as the heir of Calin Georgescu.

The relevant candidates in the May 4 presidential elections are George Simion, Crin Antonescu, and Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan. USR president Elena Lasconi and former Social Democrat prime minister Victor Ponta are also relevant for their impact on the electorate. The polls indicate Simion would lose the second round in front of most of his opponents – but this is still uncertain.