Bucharest is close to entering “red scenario” as number of new COVID-19 cases in Romania remains high

Romania’s capital Bucharest is close to entering the “red scenario” due to the high number of new COVID-19 infection cases recorded in the last 14 days. Meanwhile, the number of new cases remains high in the country, with over 3,100 people testing positive in the last 24 hours, according to official data reported on Tuesday, October 13, at noon.

Bucharest has reached an incidence rate of 2.97 new cases per 1,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days, as of Tuesday, October 13 (up from 2.09 on October 6), Romania-Insider.com has calculated. The calculated incidence rate is based on official data reported by the Strategic Communications Group (CGS) – 6,387 new daily cases between September 30 and October 13 - and the city’s registered population reported by the National Statistics Institute – 2.15 million inhabitants.

However, the CGS reported an official incidence rate of only 2.69 new cases per 1,000 inhabitants in Bucharest on October 13.

New controversies have arisen in recent days about the actual incidence rate in Bucharest, as the official reports from the CGS and the National Public Health Institute (INSP) were indicating different numbers. While CGS announced an incidence rate of 2.65 in Bucharest on Monday, October 12, the INSP weekly report showed a rate of 3.11. However, this is because the INSP was calculating its rate based on the resident population, which is lower than the registered population used by the CGS. In the meantime, INSP has updated its report to show the incidence rates based on both population numbers.

The incidence rate is very important, and especially the threshold of 3 cases per 1,000 inhabitants, which triggers the “red scenario.” This scenario implies closing schools in the affected city or region and switching all students to online learning. It could also trigger new restrictions imposed at a local level.

On Tuesday, Bucharest recorded 499 new cases in the last 24 hours, of a total of 3,109 reported in the country. Several counties also reported high numbers on Tuesday: Cluj – 172 new cases, Bacau – 156, Prahova – 122, Mures and Neamt – 115, Iasi – 113, Timis – 111, Alba – 101.

Fifteen counties in Romania (out of a total of 40) also recorded incidence rates of over 1.5 new cases per 1,000 inhabitants on October 13. In Alba, Valcea, Bacau, Iasi, and Neamt counties, the rates were over 2. Meanwhile, eight counties had incidence rates under 1 per 1,000 inhabitants.