George Simion and Nicușor Dan head into Romania’s presidential runoff with equal support, poll says

With five days remaining until the second round of Romania's presidential elections on Sunday, May 18, the race between far-right leader George Simion and independent candidate Nicușor Dan is extremely close, according to an AtlasIntel opinion poll conducted for Hotnews.ro. The survey shows both candidates tied, each with 48.2% of the vote in the lead-up to the second presidential vote.

The AtlasIntel poll was conducted between May 9 and May 12, 2025, with a sample of 3,995 respondents, and a margin of error of ±2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

The opinion poll reveals that 1% of respondents plan to annul their vote, while another 2.6% remain undecided.

As for the redistribution of votes from candidates who participated in the first round, the majority of votes for Crin Antonescu, the candidate backed by PSD-PNL-UDMR, would go to Nicușor Dan, with 91.7% of his voters choosing Dan. Only 6.2% would back Simion.

In a similar trend, 96.7% of voters who supported USR's Elena Lasconi would shift their vote to Nicușor Dan, while just 2.5% would choose George Simion.

Among former prime minister Victor Ponta's supporters, who also campaigned on a platform of "sovereignty," 69.3% would back Nicușor Dan, while 22.6% would vote for George Simion.

For Daniel Funeriu's small voter base, 47.3% of his votes would go to Dan, and 52.7% would go to George Simion. However, Funeriu's support was minimal, with just 0.34% of the vote in the first round.

(Photo source: Inquam Photos/Malina Norocea, Sabin Cirstoveanu)