Poll: Over half of Romanians say Russia started the war in Ukraine, 44% expect Moscow to win

More than half of Romanians believe Russia is responsible for starting the war in Ukraine, yet 44% think Moscow will ultimately prevail, according to a new survey by INSCOP Research. The findings point to a growing sense of pessimism about Kyiv’s chances despite continued attribution of blame to the Kremlin.

The poll, conducted between January 28 and February 6, 2026, at the request of the New Strategy Center, showed that 54.9% of respondents say Russia is to blame for triggering the conflict, down from 71.2% in May 2022 but slightly above the 49.8% recorded in November 2023.

At the same time, 44.5% believe Russia will win the war, a sharp increase from 26.1% in May 2022 and 32.6% in November 2023. Only 23.4% expect Ukraine to win, compared with 50.3% shortly after the invasion.

Some 14.1% of respondents blamed Ukraine for starting the war, 7.7% pointed to the United States, and 9% to the European Union, while 10.8% did not provide an answer.

Russia was most often identified as responsible by Social Democrats (PSD), Liberals (PNL), and USR voters, younger respondents under 30, and those over 60, particularly in Bucharest.

On how the conflict should end, 53.3% said Russia should withdraw and return Ukrainian territories, down from 64.7% in November 2023. Meanwhile, 35.4% believe Ukraine should make concessions to Russia to stop the war, up from 24.5% previously.

When asked about Romania’s role, 31.5% said the country should provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine, 10.5% military assistance, and 12.2% financial support. However, 42.6% believe Romania should not offer any aid.

The survey was conducted through telephone interviews on a nationally representative sample of 1,100 adults aged 18 and over, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3% at a 95% confidence level.

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