Poll predicts early elections would not solve Romania’s political deadlock

Far-right isolationist party Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) would nearly double its weight in Parliament from 19.4% to 36.4% (after redistribution and corrected for the seats allocated to minorities), the Social Democrats (PSD) would lose ground from 27.4% to 24.6%, and a reformist coalition formed by PNL, USR, and UDMR would stagnate at 35.3% (from 35.6% currently) according to the latest poll carried out by CURS and published by Hotnews.ro. None of the radical far-right parties, such as SOS Romania and POT, would meet the threshold, with their voters apparently migrating to AUR.

The poll holds, however, limited practical significance since the following political developments, primarily the no-confidence motion and the negotiations following the vote, will severely impact the electoral support of most of the parties. The Liberal Party (PNL) could severely lose support if it fails to stay united, while USR may also lose ground following its potential participation in a ruling coalition headed by PSD, but not its political partners, PNL.