Romania presidential elections: MKOR study says Călin Georgescu leads voting intentions but Ilie Bolojan could win second round

A new study by MKOR shows that pro-Russian politician Călin Georgescu is the frontrunner in Romania’s presidential race, with 36.6% of voters favoring him in the first round. However, the data suggests that acting president Ilie Bolojan could defeat him in the runoff, where he would secure 42% of the votes against Georgescu’s 40%.

Ilie Bolojan said he would not run in the presidential elections this May, as the ruling coalition already has a candidate - former Liberal leader Crin Antonescu. However, he has been circulated as a possible good choice in a race against the far-right’s likely candidate, Călin Georgescu.

The study said that pro-Russian politician Călin Georgescu enjoys widespread support across different age groups, particularly among voters aged 28-56, with lower to middle incomes and general education backgrounds. His appeal is driven by an anti-system sentiment (38%) and his personal image (18%).

However, despite his strong showing in the first round, his ability to maintain support in a head-to-head contest remains uncertain.

Ilie Bolojan is emerging as a credible challenger, currently polling at 12.2% in the first round when voters are presented with a shortlist of candidates. His strengths lie in his perceived competence (26%) and integrity (33%), making him particularly popular among voters over 30, those with above-average incomes, and individuals with higher education.

Bolojan’s advantage in the second round comes from his ability to mobilize a broader segment of the electorate while reducing voter indecision, the study noted.

Bucharest mayor Nicușor Dan also ranks among the top contenders, with 11.8% support in a restricted list and 8.4% in spontaneous mentions. Seen as an anti-system candidate by 65% of his supporters, he appeals primarily to urban voters, high-income individuals, and those with higher education.

However, in a second-round matchup against Georgescu, Dan would likely fall short, with 36% support compared to Georgescu’s 42%.

The study also highlights concerns over Crin Antonescu’s candidacy. As the coalition-backed candidate, Antonescu has only 7.4% support in a restricted list and just 3.1% in spontaneous mentions. His presence in a second-round runoff against Georgescu would increase voter absenteeism, as many of his potential supporters remain undecided.

Voter turnout remains a key factor in the election, with 79% of respondents saying they would participate if the first round were held this Sunday. However, confidence in candidates remains low, with 53% of undecided voters citing a lack of trust in politicians and 20% expressing disappointment in the political system.