Tight race ahead of Romania’s presidential elections, MKOR poll finds

With just days to go before Romania’s presidential elections, a new MKOR study shows an unpredictable and tense race. George Simion, the leader of far-right party AUR, remains the frontrunner in the first round, but the number of undecided voters has grown, and voter turnout is expected to drop. The results suggest that the outcome of Sunday’s vote is rather uncertain.

Simion is supported by 33.1% of likely voters after valid votes are redistributed - an increase from 31.2% in March, according to the study. He is followed by Crin Antonescu (21%), the candidate of the ruling PSD-PNL-UDMR coalition, and Nicușor Dan (19.4%), the current mayor of Bucharest.

Former prime minister and PSD leader Victor Ponta is losing ground, dropping to 9.6% in raw support (14.8% after redistribution), down from 17.1% (redistributed) in the previous survey. USR president Elena Lasconi sees a slight increase, rising from 3.8% to 4.7% in raw support (from 5.3% to 7.3% after redistribution).

However, more Romanians are unsure about their choice - the percentage of undecided voters or those who say they would not vote has risen by 5 points: from 27.4% in March to 33.1% in April. The share of those who don’t know who they would vote for climbed from 16.2% to 21.9%, highlighting growing uncertainty just days before the election, MKOR said.

In a potential second round, the situation becomes even less clear. Depending on the matchup, between 41% and 55% of voters say they would either not vote, cast a blank vote, or are undecided.

In one scenario, Nicușor Dan and George Simion are nearly tied, with 29% and 28% support, respectively, but 43% of voters are uncertain or unwilling to choose either.

In the Simion vs. Crin Antonescu matchup, the ruling coalition’s candidate maintains his lead (31% vs. 28%), but the share of those who do not clearly express a preference has increased (41% compared to 36% in March).

In the Simion vs. Victor Ponta scenario, the two were tied in March (30%-30%). In April, Simion holds a slight lead (28% vs. 25%), but 47% of respondents are either undecided or do not intend to vote (up from 40% in March).

The poll also shows that voters are less enthusiastic about going to the polls. In March, 87% of Simion’s supporters said they would “definitely” vote. In April, that number dropped to 76%. Nicușor Dan’s core supporters remain more stable, with around 92% saying they will vote, while Crin Antonescu’s base dropped from 86% to 82%.

Researchers say the growing indecision, combined with a drop in voter enthusiasm, raises the risk of low turnout and an unusually high number of spoiled or blank votes. This means that mobilizing voters in the final days could be the key to winning.