Bucharest among cities with highest increase in heat-related deaths by 2099, study shows

Bucharest will be among the European cities with the highest increase in heat-related death rates by 2099, according to a pan-European study published by Nature.

The study involving numerous researchers from institutes across Europe modeled the effects of global warming on the densely populated cities of the continent. They estimated the effects in terms of heat-related deaths in the event of a global rise in temperatures of 2-3 degrees Celsius.

That rise, however, will be felt much more severely in cities due to concrete infrastructure that absorbs and retains heat. Already, during the summer, temperature differences within large cities and the surrounding rural areas can reach up to +15 degrees Celsius.

In the most extreme scenario, global warming will lead to an additional 2.3 million heat-related deaths annually across the continent. Athens, Madrid, and Rome will be the most affected metropolises, but Bucharest is also at the top.

The Romanian capital will register 55 more deaths per 100,000 inhabitants due to heatwaves by the end of the century, among the highest rates in Europe. With the current population of two million, this would mean over a thousand heat-related deaths per year in Bucharest alone. Higher rates will only be found in Italy, Spain, and Greece.

“In addition to the Mediterranean region, we observed hotspots of net increases in temperature-related deaths in South-East European countries like Romania and Bulgaria, and in Central Europe, including Austria, southern Germany and southern Poland. These areas also correspond to countries in which the necessary heat risk attenuation to avoid an increase in temperature-related mortality is the highest,” the study says.

At the national level, climate change would cause a net increase of deaths by 81 per 100,000 inhabitants, or approximately 16,000 people per year.

However, the study also shows that these deaths could be reduced by at least two-thirds if preventive measures were taken.

(Photo source: LCVA | Dreamstime.com)