Romania’s far-right AUR takes lead in new parliamentary election poll, hitting 40% support

Romania’s far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) has surged to a record-high 40.5% in voting intention for parliamentary elections, according to the second edition of the Informat.ro – INSCOP Research Barometer conducted between June 20–26. The poll shows AUR clearly leading the political landscape, with significant distance from other major parties, such as the National Liberal Party (PNL) at 17.3% and the Social Democratic Party (PSD) at only 13.7%.

The barometer, a monthly survey commissioned by news platform Informat.ro in partnership with the Strategic Thinking Group think tank, is based on telephone interviews with a representative sample of 1,150 Romanian adults and carries a margin of error of ±2.9%.

The latest results reveal a deepening of Romania’s political polarization following the recent elections. According to INSCOP director Remus Ștefureac, the four governing parties - PNL, PSD, USR, and UDMR - together account for 49% of voting intentions, while opposition parties AUR, POT, and SOS Romania collectively gather 46%. AUR’s historic rise comes amid prolonged coalition talks and growing public unease over restrictive government measures.

“AUR and PSD are at their highest and lowest scores, respectively, since INSCOP Research began measuring them in polls,” Ștefureac said.

PNL is now the second most popular party, climbing to 17.3% in voting intentions if Romania were to hold parliamentary elections next Sunday, followed by PSD at 13.7%, marking a sharp decline from the previous month and their lowest level in INSCOP polls. USR follows closely with 13.1%.

Other parties trailing further include UDMR at 5.2%, POT at 4.2%, SENS at 2.4%, and SOS Romania at 1.9%. Only 1.4% of voters would choose an independent, and 0.5% prefer another party.

Voter participation estimates suggest a highly mobilized electorate, with 67.3% of respondents saying they are certain (10 out of 10) they will vote in the next parliamentary elections. Just under 15% say they are sure they will not vote.

(Photo source: Inquam Photos/Ilona Andrei)