AtlasIntel poll says Romania's grand coalition has no chance of winning presidential elections

NATO Deputy Secretary-General Mircea Geoana is by far the strongest presidential candidate, while the co-leaders of the grand coalition formed by Social Democrats (PSD) and Liberals (PNL) Marcel Ciolacu and Nicolae Ciuca are not even relevant challengers, according to a poll conducted by AtlasIntel for Digi24 during April 5-9.

The three scenarios studied by AtlasIntel assess different strategies followed by the ruling coalition as regards their candidates but assume that Mircea Geoana, as well as the most probable candidates of the opposition, George Simion (radical AUR) and Catalin Drula (reformist USR), are running.

In a first scenario with only Geoana and the opposition's candidates, the former would get 33.6% of the votes – nearly three times more than each of his three primary challengers: George Simion (11.8%), Catalin Drula (10.9%) and Diana Sosoaca (10.7%).

If both Social Democrat and Liberal leaders are running, Mircea Geoana remains the absolute winner (27% of the votes), however, with a slightly weaker score. Interestingly, the scores of the leading opposition candidates, George Simion and Catalin Drula, would be marginally better compared to the first scenario (12.6% and 11.3% respectively). Marcel Ciolacu would come in fifth place with 9.6% of the votes, and Nicolae Ciuca in seventh (5%).

Somehow unexpected, if the ruling coalition decides to nominate only Marcel Ciolacu as a joint candidate, he would not get a weaker score compared to the second scenario: 9.2% compared to 9.6%. The bulk of the voters supporting Nicolae Ciuca would go to the opposition's candidates (George Simion and Catalin Drula) and, to some extent, to the independent candidate Mircea Geoana.

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