Romania’s retail sales stabilise in 2026 after negative correction last year
Romania’s seasonally adjusted retail sales volume index remained broadly unchanged in July for the seventh consecutive month, indicating that household consumption has essentially stabilised at the lower level reached after last year’s negative correction. The index was nevertheless 6.2% below its July 2025 level, according to data published by the National Statistics Office (INS).
iulian ernst · Journalist
· 3 min read
The annual contraction, which stood at around 5%-6% in the first two quarters of the year, remained high at 6.2% in July. However, the rate should start easing from August as favourable base effects kick in: the VAT rate increase implemented in August 2025 pushed up inflation and consequently reduced households’ real purchasing power.
In seasonally adjusted terms, total retail sales have remained throughout 2026 roughly 10% above their 2021 average. The only exception was March, when sales were temporarily boosted by purchases of car fuel as prices were rising and consumers were anticipating possible shortages.
The three main segments of the retail market have followed broadly similar downward trajectories over the past 12 months, despite having recorded very different dynamics beforehand. Non-food sales, however, have already shown signs of stabilisation and even a modest recovery during 2026, while food sales and car-fuel sales have continued to decline.
In July, food sales were 5.4% below their year-earlier level, non-food sales were down 6.4%, while car-fuel sales fell by 7.0%.
Retail sales remain significantly above 2021 levels
Despite the annual contraction, Romania’s retail sales have increased at double-digit rates overall over the past five years. In seasonally and workday-adjusted terms, food sales in July were 2.7% above their 2021 average, while non-food sales were 20.4% higher and car-fuel sales 10.1% higher. Overall, retail sales were 11.2% above their 2021 average.
Romania’s increase was nevertheless comparatively modest within the region. Bulgaria recorded a 28.8% increase in retail sales compared with its 2021 average, followed by Croatia at 19.7% and Poland at 14.2%. Hungary recorded a 7.4% increase, while Slovakia and Slovenia posted increases of 3.0% and 4.6%, respectively.
Real wages and consumer lending supported consumption
The rise in Romania’s retail sales over the past five years was supported by both real wage growth and the expansion of consumer lending. The average net wage in Romania was 5.7% higher in real terms in Q2 2026 than its 2021 average. The average monthly volume of consumer loans, however, was 63% higher in Q2 than its 2021 average (real terms as well), a development reflected particularly in the stronger performance of non-food sales.
Consumer lending surged in 2024 and has remained relatively stable in nominal, seasonally adjusted terms since then, although its real value has declined since headline inflation accelerated last August. Nevertheless, the significantly larger volume of consumer credit compared with 2021 has helped keep non-food sales at comparatively high levels, while the erosion of real purchasing power caused by inflation has exerted the opposite pressure.
