UniCredit: Romania's economic growth could fall below 4% by year-end

Romania registered a 5.7% economic growth in the first quarter of 2017 compared to the same period last year, above the estimate of 5% made by UniCredit. The lender explained that the biggest surprise came from the industry, with an advance of 7.3% in the first three months of the year, compared with a 3.5% increase anticipated by the bank's analysts. However, the UniCredit experts estimate that the economic growth could fall below 4% by year-end if the budget deficit does not increase well above 3% of GDP. UniCredit considers that the main driver of growth has remained consumption, on the demand side, possibly accompanied by exports above expectations. Investments will most likely remain modest or will even contract. Although the economic growth is robust, too much dependence on consumption will lead to wider macroeconomic imbalances, according to the UniCredit experts. Romania’s economy unexpectedly accelerates in first quarter editor@romania-insider.com