Romania's ruling party leader boasts with record economic growth, but statement is inaccurate

Liviu Dragnea, the leader of Romania's ruling party - the Social Democratic Party (PSD), wrote in a Facebook post that the budget revenues increased by 32% in 2018 compared to 2016 while the gross domestic product (GDP) went up 25% during the same period. He added that these are the highest growth rates Romania has ever recorded in two consecutive years, concluding that "figures look good".

This post came as a follow up after a photo Dragnea posted on Friday afternoon, just as he returned from vacation. The photo showed him together with economy minister Niculae Badalau, finance minister Eugen Teodorovici, PM Viorica Dancila's advisor Darius Valcov, junior coalition partner ALDE's president Calin Popescu Tariceanu and former finance minister Daniel Chitoiu (also from ALDE) at a table, apparently analyzing some documents. "With figures on the table. The future looks good." was Dragnea's caption of the photo, which stirred ironic comments on Facebook.

In his subsequent post on Sunday, the PSD leader included several figures that are not yet public. He wrote that Romania closed last year with budget revenues of RON 295.1 billion (EUR 63.4 billion), up 32% compared to 2016, and a GDP of RON 949.6 billion (EUR 204 billion), up 25% over 2016. The Finance Ministry hasn't yet made public the budget execution figures for 2018 while the National Statistics Institute (INS) will announce the first estimates on the 2018 GDP on February 14. Moreover, the growth rates Dragnea presented are nominal, which means they include inflation. The real economic growth rate was 6.9% in 2017 and probably slightly above 4% in 2018, based on data for the first three quarters, which results in a real economic growth rate of under 12% in 2018 compared to 2016. The statement that growth rates for budget revenues and the GDP in 2018 compared to 2016 were the highest Romania ever recorded in two consecutive years is also not covered by facts. For example, in 2008, Romania's GDP was 55.6% higher than in 2006 (RON 540 bln versus RON 347 bln), in nominal terms, while the budget revenues increased by 50% in the same period (from RON 40.7 bln to RON 61.1 bln), according to data from the National Statistics Institute (INS). editor@romania-insider.com