New GDP estimation for 2011 triggers dismissal at Romania's Statistics Institute, may cause budget deficit change

A recent adjustment of Romania's Gross Domestic Product in 2011, which was written off by some EUR 4.4 billion, caused the dismissal of the National Statistics Office director Vergil Voineagu and unease in the Government. The change in the 2011 GDP will cause a drop in budget spending this year to allow Romania to stay within the targeted deficit, as well as changes in numbers for GDP, budget revenues and expenses and the budget deficits for 2012 and 2013. A GDP estimation change occurred in the spring of 2012 too, but then the GDP estimation for 2011 increased by some EUR 6.8 billion, going from RON 547 billion (or EUR 121.5 billion) to RON 578 billion (or some EUR 128.4 billion). End 2012, the Statistics Institute took the estimation back close to the initial number, of some EUR 123.5 billion. The change cause the dismissal of Vergil Voineagu and his temporary replacement by Beatrix Gered, the vice-president of the INS. The Institute explained the change through the use of EU's methodology on the GDP, which is subject to periodical revision. The EU methodology features three versions of the estimated GDP – provisional, after 70 days, semi-permanent – 9 months, and permanent – after 21 months. The differences between these versions are normal and do not represent calculation errors, the INS argues. The new numbers may cause new budget deficit targets for this year, and require more discussion with the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Last year's budget deficit target was of 2.2 percent of the GDP. editor@romania-insider.com (photo source: sxc.hu)