World Bank cuts Romania's economic growth outlook to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026

The World Bank (WB) revised downward its outlook for Romania's economic growth in 2025-2026 as part of a broader deterioration in the region's economic prospects, under the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Economic Update published on April 23. Romania's economic growth would be the lowest among the region's countries in each of the two years.

Romania's GDP will increase by 1.3% this year to accelerate to 1.9% in 2026, according to the WB's updated projection, which marks downward revisions of 0.8 percentage points (pp) and 0.7pp, respectively. This compares to 2.5% growth rates for the ECA region in each of the two years.

Romania's government drafted the budget planning on a more optimistic forecast, envisaging 2.5% economic growth this year, followed by a 3.0% advance in 2026.

The WB revised downward the GDP growth projection for the ECA region by 0.1pp to 2.5% in 2025 and 2026.

Risks are heavily tilted to the downside, the WB warns. It cites "heightened global policy uncertainty, trade fragmentation, increased trade barriers, geopolitical tensions, and financial market volatility dominate."

Serious challenges could also arise from weaker-than-anticipated economic expansions in key trading partners, further adverse shifts in global trade policy, and continued softening of commodity prices. Tight labor markets and potential supply-side shocks could exacerbate inflation, but how these factors will develop remains to be seen.

According to the cited source, in 2024, growth across the region stabilized at 3.6%, supported by private consumption and robust real wage increases, higher remittances, and rising consumer credit, all of which offset weaker external demand due to reduced economic growth in the European Union.

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