UniCredit revises Romania's 2024 growth to 1.7%, expects slight improvement in 2025
UniCredit downgraded its 2024 growth forecast for Romania to 1.7% (from 2.4% in July) due to the poor performance in H1 and a slower-than-anticipated recovery in the EU, but it upgraded its 2025 outlook to 1.9% (from 1.3% in July) owing to…
iulian ernst · Journalist
· Updated · 2 min read
UniCredit downgraded its 2024 growth forecast for Romania to 1.7% (from 2.4% in July) due to the poor performance in H1 and a slower-than-anticipated recovery in the EU, but it upgraded its 2025 outlook to 1.9% (from 1.3% in July) owing to base effects, according to the latest research report of the financial group.
The fiscal uncertainty will shape the economic outlook, the bank's analysts say, adding that tax rate hikes are expected – possibly including a 2pp VAT rate hike as of July 2025. On the external balance side, UniCredit remains more optimistic but still sees the local currency depreciating slightly, towards RON to EUR traded in the 5.0-5.1 band.
