S&P to review Romania's rating this month

International rating agency S&P announced it would carry out its first review of Romania's rating on January 24 and another two times later this year in April and October, according to Profit.ro.

The review calendar includes a supplementary assessment on the first of the month, compared to the typical bi-annual calendar, according to Profit.ro – which also points out that the supplementary review comes soon after the deterioration of the political outlook concomitant with the decline of the budget deficit to a gap estimated at 8.6% of GDP in 2024.

Fitch has already changed the outlook on Romania's rating at the lowest investment-grade level to negative from stable.

For 2025, S&P has planned ratings in January, April, and October, Fitch in February and August, and Moody's in March and September.

Romania managed to avoid a major political crisis so far after the Social Democrats (PSD), Liberals (PNL), and Hungarian party UDMR formed a ruling coalition with the help of the ethnic minorities' MPs. But the new government is expected to come up with a credible 2025 budget planning by the end of this month.

Separately, the country's political stability will again come under pressure in May, when the presidential elections will most likely be held. Ultranationalist independent candidate Calin Georgescu, who expressed far-right and pro-Russian views although toned down more recently, is rated as the frontrunner by the few polls carried out recently, while neither the ruling coalition nor the democratic opposition came up with a relevant candidate.

Currently, S&P rates Romania at BBB-, the lowest level in the category of those recommended to investors, with a stable outlook.

Romania has the same rating, but with a negative outlook, from Fitch, and a similar rating (Baa3) with a stable outlook from Moody's.

(Photo source: Michael Vi/Dreamstime.com)