Romania’s PMI falls back into contractionary territory in October

The brief return to expansionary territory has yet to translate into actual production, which posted negative annual growth rates in each of the first ten months of the year.

The renewed contraction in October was driven mainly by lower new orders and output. New export orders also fell, suggesting that both domestic and external demand weakened during the month.

At the same time, the flash reading of the S&P Global Germany Manufacturing PMI pointed to a faster pace of expansion in October than in September, according to Erste Research. This discrepancy raises questions about the correlation between industrial developments in the two countries.

Higher energy costs have dashed Erste Group’s hopes for an industrial recovery this year.

2026 is likely to mark the fourth consecutive year of contraction in industrial output, the group's note concludes. Ongoing geopolitical conflicts are putting significant pressure on energy markets and driving up costs for energy-intensive industries.

Input costs recorded another significant increase in October, with the pace of inflation edging up from the previous month. Among the 14% of companies reporting higher input costs, firms most frequently cited rising prices for energy, fuel, transportation, raw materials and oil-derived products. Exchange rate movements against the euro also contributed to cost pressures. The pass-through of higher input costs to output prices remained partial, with the relevant index recording a more modest increase, albeit at a slightly faster pace than in September.

The benefits of military spending for Romania’s economy remain uncertain.

While substantial investment in EU security, together with large-scale fiscal stimulus in Germany targeting infrastructure and defence, is expected to support European industrial output, the recovery is likely to remain uneven. It is also unclear to what extent Romania will be able to benefit, if at all.