Romanian managers expect overlapping crises but more optimistic for the future, survey shows

Managers of Romanian companies active in the most important business sectors are increasingly optimistic for the future, despite foreseeing a series of problems such as the devaluation of the national currency, rising inflation, and a prolonged energy crisis.

The conclusion is included in Impetum Group’s most recent Confidex survey, which began during the pandemic. The survey aims to measure the perception of Romanian managers on the macroeconomic climate. Over 500 managers overseeing companies of varying sizes in 6 sectors of the economy (industry, construction, agriculture, commerce, transportation, and services) were interviewed. 75% of the companies included in the survey have a turnover above EUR 1 mln. Nearly a third have a turnover of over EUR 5 mln.

The sector with the most obvious shift in terms of confidence is the agricultural one. Romanian managers of companies in this sector were, at the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, the most concerned about the future, having to face a severe drought over the spring and summer. At the moment, they make up the most confident cohort in the survey, while those in construction were the most worried, a constant since last year.

Managers in services expressed a steadily increasing degree of confidence in the success of their businesses from 2020 until now. Those in the industrial sector, however, are close to historical lows in terms of confidence, showing extreme worry due to increased energy costs.

Overall, the average confidence score among managers was 5.1, with those of the largest companies being even more confident, scoring an average of 5.5. Managers are also more relaxed, with only 27% expressing worry – compared to 39% in the first semester of 2021.

Paradoxically, the same increasingly confident managers believe, according to the survey, that the larger economic outlook is bleak. Roughly 43% believe that Romania’s GDP will drop in the following three months, and 9 in 10 managers also believe that Romania will see a deepening inflation. 84% expect a prolonged energy crisis.

Increased unemployment, a drop in private investments, and a decrease in the local capital markets are also foreseen.

“Romanian managers expect a recession, an energy crisis, and a devaluation of the leu against the dollar, and yet their mood has risen. Overall, they are more relaxed,” said Andrei Cionca, CEO of Impetum Group. “The question we ask ourselves is whether this relaxation comes from a better level of preparation, at the level of the business environment, and an increase in the degree of resilience and confidence coming from the managers who believe they can overcome even bigger challenges, or whether they are just adopting a reactive attitude to an upcoming intervention from the state seeking to solve problems.”