Romania’s 12-month trade gap up 25% YoY at EUR 22.7 bln, as of end-October

Romania’s exports and imports increased to record levels in October, and the trade gap rose by 37% in the month, compared to the same month last year, to EUR 2.47 bln according to the latest data released by the statistics office INS.

The annual growth rates for Romania’s exports, imports and trade gap are slightly above the medium-term trends as the global trade is recovering from the slowdown experienced last year. Higher commodity prices and global inflationary trends also contribute to better foreign trade figures toward the end of 2021.

Romania’s exports rose by only 4.6% YoY (to EUR 6.55 bln in October, but by 16.6% YoY to EUR 72.2 bln over the rolling 12-month period ending October. Its imports rose by 11.8% YoY (to EUR 9.01 bln) in October and 18.6% YoY to EUR 94.9 bln in the 12-month period.

Thus, the trade gap accumulated over the past 12 months ending October reached EUR 22.7 bln - 25% more than it was as of October 2020 and 31% more than it was in October 2019 before the crisis.

Romania’s trade gap is widening more than as an effect of the recovery after the lockdown period or as an effect of global inflation. This is visible from the 12-month trade gap expressed as a share of the latest available 4-quarter GDP. This ratio, the dynamic trade gap to GDP ratio, reached 9.7% according to our calculations - up from 8.3% as of October 2020 and 8.0% in October 2019.

As a share of GDP, Romania’s imports reached 40.6% - 1pp more than 39.6% as of October 2019. The country’s exports, however, haven’t reached the pre-crisis level (compared to GDP) as they were only 30.8% of GDP as of October 2021 compared to 31.6% two years earlier in October 2019.

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