Romania’s trade deficit shrinks by 10.3% y/y in 12 months to May

Romania’s trade deficit shrank by 5.3% y/y to EUR 2.6 billion in May, as imports remained constrained by subdued domestic consumption, according to data published by the statistics office INS. But the impetus of the trade gap narrowing is losing momentum as the effects of the fiscal and regulatory measures implemented in mid-2025 are phasing off and the ailing economic activity fails to support exports in volume terms.

In May alone, exports increased by 4.5% y/y, more than twice as much as the imports (+1.9% y/y).

In the 12 months to May, Romania’s trade deficit narrowed by 10.3% y/y to EUR 31.9 billion, or some 8.3% of GDP, down from 9.8% of GDP in the previous 12-month period. This was due to a moderate 0.3% y/y nominal advance of imports (EUR 129.4 billion) and a stronger 4.3% y/y advance of exports (EUR 97.5 billion). But the nominal narrowing and even more the gap-to-GDP ratio are losing momentum. The 12-month trade deficit-to-GDP ratio has remained around 8.3% for the fourth consecutive month. This is the smallest value since early 2021 – but it still reflects a deep structural external deficit.

The export-to-GDP ratio narrowed slightly to 25.5% in 12 months to May, down from 25.8% in the previous 12-month period, after peaking above 33% in late 2022 (indeed helped by the higher oil prices not yet absorbed into the general inflation rate, and re-exports of cereals imported from Ukraine).

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