Romania’s foreign trade, but also deficit, gains momentum in April

Both exports and imports of Romania increased in April by 14.8% y/y and 17.8% y/y, respectively, as the Easter holiday hit the economic activity in May this year (compared to April in 2023), according to data published by the statistics office INS.

The trade deficit widened, accordingly, by 29% y/y – which is more than proportionally and indicates a deterioration in the country’s external balance consistent with the robust domestic demand (retail sales +14.6% y/y in April, private consumption up 3.5% y/y in Q1).

In the 12 months to April, Romania’s exports decreased by 0.8% y/y to EUR 93.3 billion as the commodity and industrial prices declined. The dwindling industrial activity also contributed.

The country’s imports in the 12-month period contracted by 3.4% y/y to EUR 122.7 billion on lower energy prices (natural gas bill) and subdued industrial activity.

Consequently, the trade deficit in the 12 months to April 2024 contracted by 10.8% y/y to EUR 29.4 billion or 9% of GDP compared to 11.2% in April 2023.

Romania’s trade gap to GDP ratio doubled from 6% in 2016 to 11.9% in 2022 amid various factors, including the war in Ukraine (higher energy prices), but eased afterward to 9.1% as of November 2023 to resume an upward shift driven by domestic demand in the recent period.

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