Romania revises downward growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027

On the demand side, the recovery will be driven next year by consumption, although exports are also expected to contribute. This appears somewhat at odds with the modest increase expected in real wages next year: 0.4%, albeit significantly better than the 3.3% real contraction forecast for 2026, when consumption was nevertheless not expected to support growth.

CNP revised its growth forecast for 2026 to -0.4%, from +1% in December 2025, under the scenario used to prepare this year’s public budget. An interim forecast published in May 2026 had maintained a positive growth outlook of 0.1%.

Reflecting higher-than-previously-expected inflation partly prompted by the Middle East War, the GDP deflator was revised upwards from 6.1% to 8.5%, pushing the nominal GDP forecast up from RON 2,045 billion in December 2025 to RON 2,086 billion in the latest projection.

The GDP forecast in euro terms remained around EUR 400 billion, as the assumed average exchange rate was revised in line with recent developments, from RON 5.11 to RON 5.22 per euro.

For 2027, CNP lowered its expected growth rate from 2.2% to 1.7%. On the demand side, gross fixed capital formation is expected to lose momentum, slowing from 8.2% growth this year to 0.8% y/y in 2027. This broadly follows the trend in the December 2025 forecast, although the latest projections imply a sharper slowdown: at that time, growth rates of 4.0% and 1.9%, respectively, were expected for 2026 and 2027.

Consumption is expected to replace investment as the main growth driver, with forecast growth rates of -1.2% y/y this year and +1.7% in 2027. Private consumption is projected to accelerate to 1.9% y/y in 2027, despite a modest 0.4% increase in real wages and an expected 0.6% expansion in employment.

On the production side, contractions in industry and services this year, of 3.4% y/y and 1.9%, respectively, are expected to be partly offset by growth of 10.1% in construction and 5.1% in agriculture. Growth is expected to be more evenly distributed across sectors next year, with industry forecast to recover by 0.9%.