Banca Transilvania: Romania may overcome Poland by GDP per capita within several years

Romania could overtake Poland in terms of GDP per capita by the middle of this decade, if it accelerates public sector reforms and digitization, as well as if it pays more attention to investment in research and development, according to an analysis conducted by Andrei Rădulescu, director of Macroeconomic Analysis at Banca Transilvania.

"Poland and Romania have faced similar economic and historical challenges over the last century, the evolutions in the two countries being often analyzed comparatively by experts," Rădulescu said, quoted by Cursdeguvernare.ro.

The analysis points out that Romania has achieved a strong convergence towards the level in Poland from the perspective of the annual rate of potential GDP from 2010 to 2019.

The development gap between Poland and Romania has adjusted significantly in the post-crisis economic cycle after, in 2019 (the last year of that cycle), the GDP/capita at purchasing power parity as a percentage of the EU average was 75.7% in Poland compared to 72% in Romania.

According to the analysis, the annual rate of potential GDP in Romania exceeded the level in Poland in 2020,an evolution determined by the dynamics of the capital factor.

For the period 2021-2023, BT analyst expects the intensification of Romania's convergence towards the level in Poland, through a stronger evolution of the potential growth rate, supported mainly by the contribution of the capital and labour components.

"We draw attention to the fact that Romania can surpass Poland in terms of GDP / capita in purchasing power parity by the middle of this decade, conditioned by accelerated reforms, digitalization of the public sector and closer attention to investment in research and development," Andrei Rădulescu concluded.

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