Romania's macroeconomic confidence index plunges to Covid-19 crisis low

The CFA Romania Association's Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator decreased in November by 13.5 points to 31.4 points, the lowest level since July 2020, according to the latest report.

"Amid extremely high political uncertainty, and the sharp increase in investor risk aversion, the confidence indicator has fallen to levels reached only during the Coronavirus pandemic," commented Adrian Codirlasu, president of the CFA Romania Association, quoted by Ziarul Financiar.

The report, typically based on data collected during the last decade of the previous quarter and issued with a one-month delay, seems to capture the concerns prompted by the presidential elections where pro-Russian candidate Calin Georgescu expressing ambiguous but risky economic ideas stands significant odds to win.

The plunge seen in the overall confidence index was due to the sharp decrease in both of its components. Thus, the expectations component decreased by 12.1 points to 23.3, the lowest since January 2019. At the same time, the current conditions component decreased by 16.4 points to a value of 47.8 points – entering in the "negative" territory of the 0-100 scale.

The median projections for the economic growth and budget deficit this year still seem a bit on the optimistic side. The state budget deficit forecast for 2025 increased to the average expected value of 7.2% of GDP (versus a possible gap of 8% of GDP). Economic growth expectations for 2025 are at an average value of 1.3% – while the growth may actually hardly reach 1%.

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