Romania’s industry keeps losing ground, posts 5.6% y/y decline in Q3

The industrial output in Romania further declined by 0.9% q/q while the annual growth rate remained negative and rather deep (-5.6% y/y) in Q3, according to data published by the statistics office INS.

The report also shows that the industrial activity showed certain improvement through the quarter, and it was moderate in the core manufacturing sectors (-0.1% q/q), but this is far from altering the longer-term downward trend.

In the 12 months to September, the industrial output contracted by 4.9% y/y (-4.0% y/y for the manufacturing sector). The automobile industry, however, stood out with a 6.3% y/y advance for the 12 months. Metallurgy, however, dragged down the overall performance with a 21% y/y contraction. The food industry performed roughly flat (-0.2% y/y).

Romania’s government expects the industrial output to bottom out in 2024 (+0.8% y/y) and grow by 3.5%-4% y/y per annum over the next three years, with the value-added expected to perform slightly better. The underlying assumptions for such a positive scenario remain unclear, though.

Besides the automobile and car parts industries, the state forecasting body CNP expects the food, chemical, pharma, plastic and rubber industries to perform above average over the following years. Tobacco processing, light industries and metallurgy are seen as laggards.

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