Romania’s industrial output shrinks by 2.8% q/q in Q1

Romania’s industrial output contracted by 2.8% q/q, in seasonally and workday adjusted terms, and by 1.9% y/y in the first three months (Q1) of the year, according to data published by the statistics office INS.

The performance of the manufacturing sector was even weaker: it contracted by 3.8% q/q and 3.3% y/y.

Romania’s industry thus returns to the long-term downward pattern, after short-lived enhanced activity during the last three quarters of 2025. The outlook for the entire year remains modest, but investments in long-term support hopes for stabilisation and further advance once the war in Ukraine ends, paving the way for more intense economic activity in the region.

Erste Research continues to expect 2026 to be a year in which a marginal expansion in industrial production is likely to happen after three consecutive years of contraction.

The BCR Romania Manufacturing PMI recorded a second consecutive month of relative improvement in April, with the headline index rising to 47.5 from 46.6 previously. This indicates a slower pace of contraction compared with the prior month. Except for stocks of purchases, which made a broadly neutral contribution, all other components recorded a positive directional contribution in April. Despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, input and output prices showed a slower pace of growth.

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