Romania’s industrial output shrinks by 0.9% in 2025 despite positive performance in H2

Romania’s industrial output has contracted by 0.9% y/y in 2025, according to data published by the statistics office INS. However, during the entire 2025 and the last two quarters of 2024, the industrial activity has more or less stagnated.

In Q3 last year, it increased by 0.9% y/y, and it posted flat annual performance (0.0% y/y) in Q4 after base effects in Q1 had resulted in a steep 3.7% y/y contraction.

In seasonally-adjusted terms, the industrial output also demonstrated volatile performance with the +0.5% q/q advance in Q4 reversing part of the 1.9% q/q contraction in Q3, which, in turn, followed positive performances in Q1 and Q2 (+1.9% q/q in Q2 alone).

Based on these data, Romania’s industry has stabilised at a level a couple of percentage points below the average level seen in 2021 – the first year of stable activity after the pandemic. The manufacturing sector seems closer to the 2021 average, while the overall performance is dragged down by the sector of utilities.

Official and independent projections indicate possible industrial recovery in 2026. While the statistics office INS projects 0.5% advance of the gross industrial production (to accelerate above 2% in 2028), Erste Group expects even stronger recovery: 1.9% this year.

“We estimate industrial production growth at +1.9% in 2026 with downside risk, marking the first year of expansion after three consecutive years of contraction. Significant investments in EU security, along with large fiscal stimulus approved in Germany for infrastructure and defence spending, are likely to boost European industrial production going forward,” according to an Erste Group research note.

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