Romania’s GDP picks up more strongly than expected in Q4

Romania's seasonally adjusted GDP increased more strongly than expected in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2020 compared to the previous quarter - namely by 5.3% in seasonally adjusted terms.

In annual terms, the country's GDP was down only 1.7% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2020, a major improvement from the 5.6% yoy decline seen in Q3 and the 12.2% yoy plunge in Q2 during the lockdown. This resulted in an overall economic contraction rate of only 3.9% for 2020, according to the flash estimate issued by the National Statistics Institute (INS) on February 16.

In January this year, the state strategy and forecasting body CNSP estimated Romania would post a 4.4% contraction for 2020. More recently, in February, the European Commission estimated an even steeper - 5% - contraction for Romania's 2020 GDP.

Prime minister Florin Citu saluted the INS's release and stressed that Romania's economic contraction last year was 5pp lower than expected at the beginning of the crisis and 2.5pp lower than the average projections issued by the international financial institutions, rating agencies, and other independent bodies.

Bloomberg also noted that Romania's economy "outshined" the rest of the EU after shunning lockdown.

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