Romania’s ESI confidence index hits highest level in five years before elections

The confidence indicator in the Romanian economy (ESI) remained in November at the highest level in the last 5 years, for the second month in a row, against the background of better assessments of managers in the trade sector and especially the increase in consumer optimism before the presidential and parliamentary elections, Profit.ro reported.

The performance comes against difficult macroeconomic circumstances, with the year’s GDP growth expectations plummeting below 1% and a painful fiscal corrective package (yet not sketched) ahead.

Indeed, private consumption remains surprisingly robust, driven by higher incomes, lower interest rates, and rampant consumer lending.

The confidence index in the economy (economic sentiment indicator - ESI) remained at 105.9 points, a level also recorded in October, the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic.

The ESI is calculated by the European Commission based on the responses of managers in the main sectors of the economy, as well as consumers, and has a high degree of correlation with the evolution of the gross domestic product. A value above 100 points generally indicates that the economy is growing, while one below this level shows a contraction.

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