Romania’s currency and yields under pressure amid Middle East developments, political volatility

Since the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, there have been outflows of foreign currency from the Romanian market, and the National Bank of Romania has reportedly intervened with amounts of “billions of euros” to smooth exchange rate volatility and avoid amplifying pressures at an already sensitive time, according to dealers consulted by Ziarul Financiar.

Market data showed a rapid increase in Romanian government bond yields, with the 10-year benchmark at around 7.1% on March 18, after recently peaking at 7.4% – 110 basis points above the 6.3% minimum of the past several years reached at the end of February before Israel’s first attack on Iran. The evolution comes against the backdrop of a tense international context, but also of domestic uncertainties, including political ones.

Looking back, the yields of Romanian government bonds reached a maximum of 8.4-8.5% in May 2025, due to internal political tensions, but subsequently entered a downward trend.

At the beginning of 2026, yields were at 6.8%, dropping even to 6.3% in February, only to return to growth in March.

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