Romania's CFA macroeconomic confidence index drops in February

The CFA Romania Association's Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator fell by 3.8 points m/m to 36.6 points in February, remaining on the 'negative' side of the 0-100 scale with the neutral mark at 50 points, according to Bursa.ro.

"Amid the risk of recession and uncertainty in the economy, the confidence indicator, and especially the current conditions component, continued to decline. Consistent with this evolution is the reduction in economic growth expectations for the current year as well as the increase in budget deficit expectations," said Adrian Codirlaşu, president of the CFA Romania Association.

The decline follows two months of rising confidence but keeps the index above the minimum reached at the end of November amid the political turmoil.

The decline in February was mainly due to the strong decrease in the current conditions component, by 10.4 points to the value of 45.9 points. The expectations component was already at a very low level and edged down by only 0.5 points to 32 points.

The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (March 2026) stood at an average value of 4.85%. The state budget deficit forecast for 2025 increased compared to the previous year to the average value of expectations of 7.4% of GDP.

Economic growth expectations for 2025 are down from the previous year at an average value of 1.1%.

Public debt, calculated as a percentage of GDP, is expected to increase to 59% in the next 12 months.

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