Romania’s CFA analysts remain pessimistic and expect no fiscal consolidation this year

The macroeconomic confidence index compiled by CFA Society Romania, based on a survey among its members, decreased by only 0.5 points in September to 47.4 points after the 7.6-point slump seen in August after the fiscal package and disappointing growth figures surfaced, Ziarul Financiar reported.

The indicator thus remains below the 50-point benchmark, indicating a balanced/neutral combination of expectations and current conditions.

In September, the current condition indicator plunged by 6.6 points to 60.5 points (pretty favourable conditions), while the expectations improved by 2.5 points but remained in the pessimistic expectations region with only 40.8 points.

The CFA analysts notably shifted their expectations towards a 5.8% of GDP public deficit this year, which would result in marginal fiscal slippage after 5.75% of GDP in 2022. The analysts’ expectations seem to be in line with the ruling coalition’s revised target, which further slipped informally to “under 6% of GDP” from 5.5% of GDP.

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