Romania’s industrial output still 12% behind pre-crisis level

Romania's seasonal and workday adjusted industrial production index advanced by another 3.3% in July compared to June, according to the National Statistics Institute (INS).

Still, it lags 12% behind the level reached in February before the crisis.

The recovery has been faster in the core manufacturing sector (+4.4% month-on-month), where the lag is only 10% versus February.

The industrial production contraction was abrupt in March-April: 37% for the whole industry and 42% for the manufacturing sector.

The slow recovery in foreign trade has also hindered the recovery of the local industry. Exports in July also lagged 10% compared to February.

In annual terms, Romania's industrial output was down 6.6% year-on-year in July (-7.0% year-on-year for the manufacturing sector), a visible improvement from -11% year-on-year (-10.6% in the manufacturing sector) in June. In the first seven months, the industrial production contracted by 14.9% compared to the same period last year.

The toughest hit industry was the automobile production (-30% year-on-year), and its recovery was robust but still incomplete (-14% year-on-year) in July. The car production probably returned to growth in August.

Food and beverage production posted positive 2-3% growth rates in July after disappointing (given the resilient demand) performance in the rest of the year.

Construction materials production was up 1.4% year-on-year in July despite a slight contraction in the first half of the year.

When it comes to broader categories, the 22% annual rise in the production of durable consumer goods in July came as a surprise. For the year-to-date period, the sector posted a double-digit contraction.

The capital goods output remains weak (-16% year-on-year). Production of consumable non-durables also remains in the negative territory (-6.1% year-on-year) while intermediate goods' production nearly recovered compared to last year (-1.3% year-on-year).

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