Romania’s public debt hits 51.9% of GDP at end-March

Romania’s gross public debt to GDP ratio reached RON 845.1bn (EUR 170.1bn) at the end of March, according to data published by the Finance Ministry.

The debt-to-GDP ratio was revised downwards to 51.7%, from 52.4% for the end of February and to 49.2% from 49.9% for the end of January, based on the rolling GDP in the four quarters to March 2024.

The country’s public debt advanced only moderately in March, after the two FX bonds summing up to EUR 7.9bn in the first two months of the year. A third bond was issued in May and will perhaps keep the indebtedness ratio above the 50% threshold despite the quarterly revision in the rolling 4-quarter GDP.

The steep rise in public indebtedness during the first quarter of the year reflects the prudent frontload financing of the year’s budget deficit, the Finance Ministry argued. The financing plan approved for the year 2024 in the amount of approximately RON 181bn was completed in a proportion of 43% until the end of March, the Government's experts said. Nevertheless, the 2%-of-GDP supplementary budget deficit will have to be financed.

Romania’s public debt to GDP ratio will drop to 48-49% “during this year”, prime minister Marcel Ciolacu assured in May. This is not very likely, though, given the fiscal deficit that will exceed the Government’s 5%-of-GDP target by up to 2% of GDP. Despite optimistic projections issued by independent analysts (Erste Bank), we expect the indebtedness ratio to remain above 50% at the end of the yearas the Treasury will tap the market to finance unplanned expenditures ahead of the parliamentary and presidential elections in Q4.

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