Reuters poll: analysts expect 1.5% nominal depreciation of Romania's currency in 2020

Central Europe’s main currencies will struggle to appreciate in the next year, with the Hungarian forint seen sticking near record lows and only the Czech crown expected to see small gains, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.

Romania’s currency leu (RON) is also expected to lose another 1.5% versus the euro due to concerns over the country’s deficits. The exchange rate would thus reach RON 4.85 per EUR.

Romania’s budget deficit will be around 4.4% of GDP this year while the new Government strives to bring the deficit down to 3%-3.5% of GDP in 2020. The current account deficit is around 5% of GDP and is likely to remain at such levels for the coming years despite the Government’s more optimistic forecast.

Robust use of funds from the European Union budget could help both the budget deficit and the current account deficit.

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