Romania’s May retail sales show households adjust to lower incomes

The total retail sales volume in Romania edged up in May compared to April (+1.3% in seasonally and workday-adjusted terms), while remaining some 5% below the volumes seen before the rise in prices occurred in mid-2025 due to the electricity price liberalisation and the VAT rate hike. In annual terms, the sales were 4.4% down y/y, a minor improvement from -5.6% y/y.

The outlook remains moderate for this year, with private consumption expected to contract by 1.8% y/y under the Spring Forecast issued by the state forecasting body. The base effects will improve the annual performance in H2, after the average 5.5% y/y contraction seen in January-May (dragged down by the -7.9% y/y plunge in non-food goods, compared to a -3.7% y/y contraction in the more stable sales of food goods). But, compared to H1, households' consumption is not expected to improve later in the year (in seasonally adjusted terms).