Raiffeisen lowers Romania’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.7%

Raiffeisen Bank has cut its projection for Romania’s economic growth in 2025 to 0.7%, citing the impact of a challenging global trading environment and slowing international demand, the Austrian lender said in its semi-annual report.

The bank now expects Romania’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 1.3% in 2026, Cursdeguvernare.ro reported.

“The difficult trading environment and the resulting global economic slowdown will likely have a negative impact on small and open economies in Central Europe,” Raiffeisen analysts stated.

Romania’s fiscal consolidation programme is expected to weigh heavily on domestic activity this year, contributing to the downward revision.

Across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), economic growth is forecast to remain modest, with industrial output lagging behind services. Poland is seen as a positive exception due to the anticipated release of European Union funds by 2025.

The steepest forecast downgrades were recorded for South-Eastern Europe (SEE), where Romania’s weaker performance is expected to drag on the regional average. Raiffeisen projects GDP growth of 1.8% in SEE this year and 2.2% in 2026.

The bank expects the National Bank of Romania to maintain its key interest rate at 6.5% in 2025, matching Hungary’s level. It anticipates a gradual easing to 5.25% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027.

Average inflation in Romania is projected to reach 6.5% in 2025 and 5.9% in 2026, the highest in the region. By comparison, inflation in Hungary is expected at 4.5% and 3.8%, and in the Czech Republic at 2.5% and 2.3% for the same periods.

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