Romania’s Manufacturing PMI improves in March-April, after hitting all-time low

Romania’s BCR Manufacturing PMI has further improved to 47.5 points in April from 46.6 points in March and an absolute low value of 45.3 points in February, while remaining deep in the contractionary half of the scale with the Middle East war dragging down the overall performance and external demand acting as the sole positive driver, according to Erste Group. That said, Erste Group says it expected March to deliver another weak reading for industrial output after a combined 2.6% y/y contraction in January-February (-4.4% y/y for the manufacturing sector), reflecting the effects of the recent war with Iran.

Erste still anticipates that 2026 will mark the first year of growth in industrial production after three consecutive years of contraction. Early-year developments, however, point to heightened downside risks. While sizeable EU security-related investments and Germany's substantial fiscal stimulus for infrastructure and defence should support European industrial production, the recovery is likely to remain uneven, with energy-intensive sectors continuing to face pressure from elevated costs.