Moneycorp poll: Half of Romanian managers expect recession in 2024

Romanian managers are cautious about the economic prospects for 2024, most of them estimating that Romania could undergo a technical recession episode in the first part of this year caused by subdued industrial activity and aggravating problems in the supply chains, according to the annual opinion barometer among companies compiled by Moneycorp Romania.

More than half of the respondents who participated in the research carried out in December 2023 (59%) are convinced that the economy will go into recession, and 37% estimate that this will happen in the first six months of 2024, Ziarul Financiar reported.

The main risks identified by the polled managers come from the operations costs (which may further increase raw materials, cost of services, and interest rates) but also from the demand that is shrinking on the back of a combination of weaker purchasing power and the accentuation of the phenomenon of disintermediation in the economy.

According to the results of the barometer, a third of the investors estimate an inflation of 6-8%, and 27% see it between 8-10% this year.

Most of the surveyed managers believe that the state will play a major role in 2024, and the main measures they consider necessary are, among others, the restructuring of the budget apparatus and its digitization, increasing the rate of VAT collection and eliminating fiscal exceptions, increasing the tax base, and keeping the single rate.

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